Toggle Menu Header

Ronie

Ronie

Property Expert,

Coronavirus: previous economic shocks reveal likely pandemic impact on Aussie housing

18D ago 0 Replies 17 Views
Uncertainty over the effect of coronavirus may have sent stocks plunging to 30-year lows but property values are unlikely to get a similar hit – even in a recession, real estate analysts claim.
There is still considerable uncertainty over how the pandemic will impact the market but recent interest rate cuts suggest it will be largely insulated from a major crash.
The housing market also has a history of performing relatively well after economic shocks compared to the more volatile share market, according to CoreLogic head of Australian research Eliza Owen.

“Major share market losses and recession are not necessarily predictors of declines in housing values,” she said.
Explaining in CoreLogic’s latest Property Pulse, Ms Owen said real estate value changes during past stock market crashes varied.

During the 1987 “Black Monday” stock market crash, the Australian share market lost 23 per cent of its value in a single day but housing values were largely unaffected, Ms Owen said.
Values instead went up by double-digit margins a year later as financial deregulation drove up asset prices. The property price rise also coincided with a major drop in the unemployment rate.
Property values did decline during the early 1990s recession but only by about 4.4 per cent nationally over a period from June 1989 to October 1990.
Value drops were larger during the global financial crisis of the late 2000s, with national dwelling prices declining 7.5 per cent from February 2008 to January 2009, according to CoreLogic.
The GFC-era slump ended quickly because of an uplift in mining-related investment, which lead to large job increases, and the start of a rate cutting cycle.
There was an additional housing market slump in 2017 and 2018, driven largely by tighter lending standards, but the downturn was quickly followed by another rebound.
Ms Owen said property values were “far less volatile” than share markets because housing was not a liquid asset and remained a consumption good.
The most likely scenario was uncertainty over coronavirus would drive down property transactions but not cause a major collapse in pricing, Ms Owen said.
Bob Hawke initiated negative gearing as we know it between 1985 and 1987, which insulated the market from major falls in the late 1980s. Picture: Errol Anderson
“There will be a lot of buyers who will put off their plans to purchase … but there will also be homeowners who decide not to (list),” she told The Daily Telegraph.
“Transactions could drop but I don’t think we will see a broadbased, major fall in prices … there will be some areas where job losses are higher and there’s more downward pressure on prices. It’s still unclear.”
She added that there was no single Australian housing market and there could be variance in the performance of different cities, suburbs and housing categories.
One of the challenges for the real estate industry would be accommodating increased isolation precautions, such as those seen in China and Italy, Ms Owen said.
“Confinement to the home would prevent physical inspections and on-site auctions … real estate industry professionals may respond by offering private inspections rather than open homes, virtual inspections using technology, or remote auctions.
“But such technologies can be difficult to adopt in the best economic conditions. Prospective buyers and sellers are likely to postpone activity until conditions revert to normal.”
Read details:
Share on:

Top Contributors Last 30 days

1 Joshua
2 Simon
3 Ronie

Related Posts

Government’s recent JobKeeper wage subsidy is set to significantly help relieve rental and mortgage stress,

Wage subsidy is to ‘relieve financial pressure’ for tenants and landlords, according to the Property Investment Professionals of Australia. This week the government confirmed a $130 billion JobKeeper wage subsidy whereby $1,500 would be granted to eligible employees and businesses per fortnight. Commenting on the move, PIPA chairman Peter Koulizos said the wage subsidy would “go a long way towards solving tenant and landlord issues during the coronavirus crisis”. “This policy has prompted a collective sigh of relief of sorts from tenants and landlords as well as everyone employed in the real estate sector nationwide,” Mr Koulizos said. “The payment will hopefully mean that there doesn’t have to be a philosophical debate over whether tenants or landlords are more worthy of financial support during these difficult times.” Mr Koulizos noted that prior to the announcement, many property investors had been worried about covering mortgage repayments if their tenants could no longer afford to pay the rent. “Landlords want to maintain a healthy relationship with tenants but are generally not in the financial position to cover mortgage repayments for months on end,” Mr Koulizos said. Looking ahead Mr Koulizos said that while it was impossible to forecast the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the real estate market, some of the changes the market has seen are not as “severe as they at first seemed”. “The banning of traditional open homes and auctions was not unexpected and, thankfully, technological advances may mean this is less disruptive to the real estate industry than it at first appeared,” Mr Koulizos said. “Buyer’s agents and property investment professionals actually have much to offer buyers in these turbulent times with the additional security they provide via their agent networks, negotiation skills as well as vast experience.” In conclusion, Mr Koulizos said: “At the end of the day, we are in the business of providing shelter for our population and that will never change.” Source:x Wage subsidy to ‘relieve financial pressure’ f... The federal government’s recent JobKeeper wage subsidy is set to significantly help relive rental and mortgage stress, according to the Property Investment Professionals of Australia. www.smartpropertyinvestment.com.au
Simon
Simon
3D ago 12 Views

The economic outlook in the unprecedented times

What’s ahead for our economy? What’s going to happen to unemployment? How high is it going to get? What will happen to property values? How much are they going to drop, or are they going to remain stable if the market comes to a halt? We are all looking for some forecasts, aren’t we? We all want to try and find a degree of certainty in these times of uncertainty? But how useful is forecasting under such extreme uncertainty? We don’t have a historical template on which to base and judgement or our forecasts? And there are many wild forecasts being bandied around, so please be careful who you listen to. Here’s what ANZ had to say: The Australian economy is facing an unprecedented challenge as governments here and abroad put in place policies to ‘flatten the curve’ of the coronavirus. This is, foremost, a health crisis, but it has quickly become an economic crisis that has substantial impacts on individuals and families as businesses close and jobs are lost. There is no historical template on which to base a judgement about the economic outlook, making forecasting extremely difficult. The federal government may have delayed the Budget until October partly for this reason. Forecasting under extreme uncertainty Just over a week ago, we published a set of economic forecasts that had GDP dropping 2% q/q in the June quarter and the unemployment rate rising toward 8% by the end of the year. These forecasts reflected what we knew at the time: a close-down of Australia’s borders, a ban on major events and advice around social distancing. By the time the weekend was over things had moved on considerably, with restaurants and cafes ordered to close. Since then the rules have got even tougher. This is likely to be the nature of things for some time. Which makes forecasting the outlook problematic. Activity slumps in Q2 as shutdowns broaden Given the nature of the shutdown driving the economic outlook, we approached this forecasting exercise from an industry perspective. The Government is yet to announce the widespread closure of non-essential businesses, and yet to clarify which industries will be considered “essential”. Overseas experience shows various approaches, but we assume Australia’s shutdown will be broadly similar to the New Zealand experience. It is already apparent that the industries hit hardest will be hospitality and arts & recreation. Key assumptions: A six-week shutdown, with activity confined to “essential services”, as well as those that keep supply chains open Agriculture: negligible net impact Mining: generally mining keeps going, but with some disruption, due to worker access, and containment measures Manufacturing: food manufacturing remains open, some other manufacturing remains open for “essentials” and supply chain requirements Utilities: remain openConstruction: largely shutdown, but some major infrastructure projects continue, and any construction related to essential services Wholesale trade: partial shutdown, food and other essentials open Retail trade: shutdown, apart from supermarkets, bottle shops and pharmacies Hospitality: full shutdown, including takeaway Transport: not shutdown, but private transport usage will be sharply lower Information media & telecommunications: some services to benefit, but some services shutdown, net effect expected to be modest net fall Finance: essential financial services still open, some other financial services shutdown, net effect expected to be modest net fall Rental, hiring & real estate: some areas shutdown Professional services: largely delivered, with some disruption Administrative services: largely delivered, with some disruption Public administration and safety: largely delivered, with some disruption Education: largely delivered, with some disruption Health: mostly open, but some sectors like child care shutdown Arts & recreation: full shutdown Other services: some areas shutdown. Details inside:x The economic outlook in a time of great uncertaint... What's ahead for our economy? What's going to happen to unemployment? How high is it going to get? What will happen to property values? How much are they... propertyupdate.com.au
Joshua
Joshua
3D ago 19 Views

Virtual auctions is the new norm

Sales by phone, inspections by appointment and, possibly, virtual auctions are the order of the day for the property industry in Townsville as the coronavirus emergency unfolds. Looking ahead, agents see changes in attitudes favouring regional markets like Townsville. “We live in paradise. This is a chance for regions to shine,” Ray White agent Julie Mahoney said. Real estate auctions joined the growing list of “prohibited activities” released by the Federal Government on Tuesday, while open house inspections are to be done by private appointment. People are being urged to stay at home unless shopping for essentials or travelling to and from work but house sales have still been occurring over the past week. Ms Mahoney’s agency holds auctions every month and recorded two sales under the hammer and another two sales shortly after last week’s event. Some form of virtual auction was being considered for future events, Ms Mahoney said. But she expected challenging times ahead and a slowdown in sales, while the use of technology would become increasingly important. She said buyers already were taking part in auctions via phone hook-ups. She was also regularly showing homes to out of town customers by walking through properties and using videotelephony product FaceTime. “The good thing for vendors is that genuine buyers will come to open houses on private appointment or FaceTime,” Ms Mahoney said. In the longer term, Ms Mahoney expected changes in attitudes caused by the coronavirus outbreak to favour regional markets. She said she had already spoken to former Townsville residents living in Sydney wanting to return to the city. “I think there’s going to be growing awareness about the density of living in these big cities. There’s going to be an economic shift,” Ms Mahoney said. She said people would look to centres like Townsville, where property values were very attractive compared with metropolitan areas, and where lifestyle was so much better. She also hoped governments would decentralise services and departments. “Once we get through this we will be seen as a very, very attractive place to live,” Ms Mahoney said. The advice from government is that we will be living with coronavirus for at least six months and that social distancing measures are aimed at slowing down its spread and allowing most people to keep their jobs. https://www.realestate.com.au/news/real-estate-agents-say-they-are-considering-virtual-auctions/x Real estate agents say they are considering virtua... Sales by phone, inspections by appointment and, possibly, virtual auctions are the order of the day for the property industry in Townsville as the coronavirus emergency unfolds. www.realestate.com.au
John
John
3D ago 4 Views

A GUIDE TO CAPITAL GAINS TAX

If you buy and sell an investment property, you may be required to pay capital gains tax (CGT) on that sale. It’s important to understand this tax when buying or selling a home. What is CGT? This is a tax that you are required to pay on any capital gain earned on the sale of an asset such as a property. CGT applies to any asset obtained after 19 August 1985. It is not a separate tax you have to pay. Rather a tax on ‘net capital gain‘ is included in your taxable income and taxed at your marginal tax rate. The ‘net capital gain’ will be reduced by your capital losses for the current income year and capital losses from previous years What is a capital gain? Put simply, a capital gain is made when a profit is made from the sale of an investment, so when the sale price exceeds the original purchase price. If you sell an investment property for less money than the purchase price, you will have made a capital loss. An industry expert can help you work out your net capital gain or loss. If you make a capital loss i.e. sell the property less than what you bought it for, you can’t claim it against your other income but you can use it to reduce a capital gain at a later stage. Calculating CGT It’s really quite simple. For the sale of a single investment, take the selling price of the property then subtract the amount you originally paid for it, along with any associated costs such as stamp duty and legal fees. The amount remaining will be your capital gain. If you make a loss rather than a gain, you will not be taxed. You may be eligible for a 50 per cent reduction of the CGT payable if you purchased the property after 21 September 1999 and owned it for at least one year before selling, and the property was purchased by an individual, trust or complying superannuation entity. Exemptions While any investment properties sold will be subject to CGT, you do not have to pay this tax on every property you buy and sell. Your main place of residence is exempt, as long as you have never rented it out. You also are not required to pay this tax at the highest marginal tax rate. Any capital gain obtained will be added to your taxable income and then taxed at the relative margin. If you have any more questions about CGT, talk to our experts on 1300 537 000
Jassie Singh
Jassie Singh
3D ago 12 Views

Some financial aid that government is providing to renters during COVID-19

The Federal Government’s recent announcement of a $130 billion support package for businesses and workers could help you if you’re a tenant struggling to pay rent this month. As a result of COVID-19, many businesses have had to let go employees. Industries including hospitality, events and tourism have been hit hardest and many workers in those fields are either without work or have found themselves with reduced incomes. There are several financial packages you could be eligible for to ensure you can pay rent on time. 1. JobKeeper allowance This is the most recent support package announced by the Government and consists of a $1,500 fortnightly payment for eligible businesses over the next six months to help them to continue paying staff. The Government has set in place the JobKeeper allowance to ensure that, as an employee, you still have a job once this difficult period is over. If the business you work for has been substantially impacted by coronavirus, it can apply for this wage subsidy. Employees that are eligible for this payout must have been employed at 1 March 2020 and include: Full-time workers Part-time workers Sole traders Casuals who have been with their employer for at least 12 months New Zealanders on 444 visas The $1,500 fortnightly payment will be issued from the first week of May and will be backdated to today. If employees have been stood down by their employer since 1 March, they remain eligible for these payments.  2. JobSeeker allowance If you have lost your job and don’t qualify for the JobKeeper payment, then you may be eligible for the JobSeeker allowance. This is a fortnightly payment and the amount paid is dependent on your circumstances ranging from $510-$790. You must be aged between 22 and pension age, your income and assets are under the test limits and you meet residence rules. However, if you have reduced work, you might still be eligible. Generally, recipients can earn up to $104 every 2 weeks before payments will be reduced.  3. Coronavirus Supplement The Government will also pay an additional $550 per fortnight to those already on a support package throughout the next six months. So if you are already on the JobSeeker payment, then you will receive this $550 on top of your pre-existing payments. This also applies to those on the following payments and will be put in place automatically: Youth Allowance Parenting Payment (Partnered and Single) Austudy ABSTUDY (Living Allowance) Farm Household Allowance Special Benefit recipients 4. Payments to support households You could also be eligible for two separate one-off payments of $750. These payments were introduced to help support households manage during the pandemic and will be paid automatically if you are already on a government payment, or are a concession cardholder. It also aims to help those who may not be able to go to work if they are required to self-isolate or are caring for someone who is self-isolating. These payments will be made automatically from 31 March, with the majority to receive the boost by 17 April. 5. Rent Assistance This is an additional payment from the government to help with rental payments if you’re already receiving assistance, and this will happen automatically, so there’s no need to apply. Make special note that this rent assistance doesn’t cover those living with their parents in a self-contained residence, which includes granny flats or caravans. The amount you receive depends on how much rent you pay. There’s a minimum amount of rent you need to pay to get this assistance. For every $1 of rent you pay above this amount, you’ll get 75c, and you can’t get more than the maximum fortnightly amount of $139.60. 6. Utility provider support With loss of income, you could be finding it difficult to pay for utilities including gas, electricity and water. Phone your provider and ask for the customer assistance program; every provider is obliged to have this service and they can help you come up with a payment plan. This means that you won’t be cut off from these household necessities during COVID-19. Source:x Financial aid tenants could tap into during COVID-... The Government's recent announcement of a $130 billion support package for businesses and workers could help you if you're a tenant struggling to pay rent this month. www.realestate.com.au
Ronie
Ronie
4D ago 9 Views

Upto 40% properties were withdrawn from the Auction with the new COVID-19 bans in place

The number of owners withdrawing their property from auction soared to 40 per cent last week, following the introduction of a ban on auctions and open homes. Social distancing measures introduced by the federal government over the last week to limit the spread of COVID-19 – including a formal ban on auctions and open homes – have stalled the number of properties being sold. According to CoreLogic, in the week ending 29 March, 3,203 homes across capital cities were set to go under the hammer. This would have made it the busiest week for auction activity so far in 2020. However, due to the government restrictions coming into play on 25 March that banned in-house and on-site auctions, 40 per cent of those properties were withdrawn from auction. The withdrawal rate shot up from just 7.5 per cent the previous week, according to property research group CoreLogic. The remaining 60 per cent of auctions were forced onto online and remote platforms and returned a preliminary clearance rate of 51.4 per cent, the lowest preliminary rate recorded since June 2019. Additionally, market experts expects this figure to be revised further downwards as more accurate information and results are recorded. Comparatively, the previous week saw a final clearance rate of 56.9 per cent across 2,599 auctions, whereas the same week last year saw a 50.9 per cent clearance rate across 2,164 auctions. According to CoreLogic, the surge in auction withdrawal was anticipated by industry figures, considering rising levels of uncertainty on behalf of both buyers and sellers in this market, as well as the shift towards remote and online auctions, which could take some time for the market to adjust to. Further, some reports from the week have seen agents battle technical challenges and connectivity issues, all of which will likely be resolved with additional preparation time, according to the research group. The data for the week ending 29 March also suggested that there was a surge in the proportion of properties sold prior to auction, up from 22 per cent last week to 36 per cent. CoreLogic speculated that home owners could have decided to bring forward the date of their auction in order to beat the introduction of the auction ban or have been motivated to sell their property before lockdown policies potentially escalate. Looking forward, the coming months are likely to see substantially fewer auctions than normal, the property research group stated. “We may see some vendors choose to convert their listing to a private treaty method, while others will likely pull their property from the market all together until confidence and selling conditions improve,” CoreLogic outlined in a statement. Read more:x Auction ban drives up withdrawal rates The number of owners withdrawing their property from auction soared to 40 per cent last week, following the introduction of a ban on in-room public auctions and open homes, according to CoreLogic. www.smartpropertyinvestment.com.au
Liam
Liam
4D ago 38 Views
7 online
Devansh Singh
Emren
Ranjit
Sukhvinder Kaur
Kamaljit Arora
and more ...